An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)     

Roberta Padulano  Alfredo Reder  Guido Rianna 《水文研究》2019,33(14):2020-2036

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.  相似文献   

Attenuation Characteristics of Earthquake Ground Motion for Large Volume Airgun     

CAI Huiteng  CHEN Yong  JIN Xing  XU Yihe  LI Wen 《中国地震研究》2019,33(4):544-556

In order to further deepen the understanding of seismic wave propagation characteristics induced by the large volume airgun source, experimental data from multiple fixed excitation points in Fujian Province were used to obtain the equivalent single excitation high signal-to-noise ratio velocity and displacement records through linear stacking and simulation techniques. Then the peak displacements of different epicentral distances were used to calculate the equivalent magnitude of the airgun source excitation at different fixed excitation points so as to establish the attenuation relationship between equivalent magnitude,epicenter distance and velocity peak. Our results show that:① Within 270 km of epicentral distance,for the large-volume airgun's single shot,the peak velocity range is about 700-4 nm/s,and the peak displacement range is about 200. 0-0. 2 nm;② The equivalent magnitude of the P-wave from the airgun source with a total capacity of 8,000 in 3 is 0. 181-0. 760,and the equivalent magnitude of the S-wave is 0. 294-0. 832. By contrast,the equivalent magnitude of the P-wave from the airgun source with a total capacity of 12,000 in 3 is 0. 533-0. 896,and the equivalent magnitude of the S-wave is 0. 611-0. 946. The S-wave energy is greater than the P-wave energy, and the excitation efficiency varies greatly with different excitation environment;③ The peak velocity increases with the equivalent magnitude,and decreases with the epicentral distance. The vertical component of the P-wave peak velocity is the largest among those three components,while the S-wave has the smallest vertical component and similar horizontal components. Hence,our research can provide an important basis for the quantitative judgment of the seismic wave propagation distance using the airgun and the design of the observation system in deep exploration or monitoring with airgun.  相似文献   

地基干涉雷达IBIS-S桥跨结构振动变形测量与模态分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王鹏  邢诚  项霞 《测绘通报》2019,(10):35-39

地基雷达干涉测量技术能够以较高的时空采样频率获取线性结构目标整体瞬时变形状态。本文将该技术引入大型桥梁桥跨结构的振动变形测量与模态分析中。对动静载试验过程中的武汉二七长江大桥东岸桥跨结构开展连续变形监测，利用频域分解法计算桥跨结构的自振频率、阻尼比和模态振型。计算结果表明，地基干涉雷达干涉测量技术能够快速探测桥跨结构竖弯模态，特别适用于灾后大型线形结构健康状态的应急检测。  相似文献   

锦州沈家台水氡高值波动异常识别     

王喜龙  王海燕  付聪  王松阳  杨振鹏 《地震》2019,39(4):158-171

讨论了锦州沈家台水氡活度浓度出现的高幅度波动异常变化与地震活动的关系。 沈家台水氡测项自2004年开始观测以来, 数据变化稳定, 氡活度浓度一般在4~5 Bq/L范围波动, 且具有很好的年周期变化规律。 但在2016年11月20日开始出现高幅度异常变化, 较正常波动范围平均高出约5 Bq/L。 针对此次出现的异常变化, 在排除外界干扰的基础上, 应用临界慢化方法进行高频异常识别分析。 结果表明, 提取的水氡高频信息成分和方差均存在异常变化, 且高频异常与原始数据异常出现时间具有同步性变化特征。 综合测点映震效能、 区域地震活动性、 井水地球化学分析及水氡异常形成机理等分析结果, 认为这次沈家台水氡出现的异常变化与辽西及环渤海地区应力场调整关系密切, 该区应力增强及井水文地质条件的制约是造成水氡出现高值波动的主要原因。  相似文献   

河北广平地震台数字电扰动异常分析     

贾华  乔子云  贾立峰  张国苓  寇海川  张双凤  张小涛 《地震地磁观测与研究》2019,40(4):95-101

自2018年1月11日，河北广平地震台数字电扰动仪NS、EW测道每日北京时间18时至次日06时出现规律性高值变化。通过观测系统检测、测区环境调查、现场实验分析、周边台站观测对比、其他台干扰形态分析及震例总结等手段，并对各种可能的影响因素进行分析论证，综合分析认为，该变化为干扰的可能性较大，非地震前异常。  相似文献   

北部湾典型海岛生态系统服务价值空间异质性对比研究     

田义超  黄远林  张强  陶进  张亚丽  黄鹄  梁铭忠  周国清 《海洋科学》2019,43(2):60-68

基于北部湾海域典型海岛高分1号数据,借助于CART决策树方法,获取了广西北部湾两个典型海岛的景观格局数据,并采用生态系统服务价值计量模型、空间自相关模型及地统计学中的变异函数模型对其生态系统服务价值进行了空间异质性分析。结果表明:团和岛单位面积生态系统服务价值是七星岛的1.08倍,但其变异系数低于七星岛;七星岛由于其地质背景为泥沙岛,景观格局受到人类活动以及自然环境的强烈干扰,趋向于复杂化和破碎化;而团和岛由于所处的外部环境以及自身的地质特征,景观格局呈现出整体斑块化分布状态;团和岛的景观格局主要受到结构性因素的控制,而七星岛则以随机性因素控制为主,选用变程和Moran’s指数来表征其复杂化和破碎化,来决定其优先开发时序,可对前者进行适当开发,而对后者适当进行生态保护;对受到结构性因素影响的岛屿在进行开发时,时序的识别选用变程和Moran’s指数来表征,若变程和Moran’s指数越小,说明海岛整体的景观分布格局趋向于复杂化和破碎化,反之生态系统较好,可进行优先开发。同时本文构建了北部湾海岛生态系统异质性评估与自然资源管理框架,并提出了海岛管理的建议与对策。  相似文献   

泉水流量、电导率、pH值动态变化研究     

余保汶  肖敏杰  王旭  费璇 《地质与资源》2020,29(4):380-387

岩溶水是指赋存于岩溶孔隙中的地下水，是我国南方生产生活主要用水来源.随着社会对水资源需求的逐步扩大，岩溶水资源的开发利用越发重要.通过定期监测岳麓山泉水流量、电导率、pH值，结合岳麓山岩土层性质和长沙市降雨量，采用统计分析和Spearman秩相关系数法对泉水流量变化和泉水水质定性评价进行研究.研究结果表明，大气降雨对岩溶水进行补给从而使泉水流量增大，泉水流量的改变除与降雨量有关外，还受土壤入渗率和降雨时长的影响.采用Spearman秩相关系数法可定量计算电导率与时间的相关性，间接判断周围环境对泉水水质影响的难易程度，有利于识别电导率代表性位置泉眼，更好地监测和评价岩溶水.土壤酸沉降污染严重或酸雨频繁地区易导致岩溶水pH值呈酸性.对泉水流量和水质的研究有利于科学开发利用岩溶水资源.  相似文献   

The Relationship between Narratives,Wildlife Value Orientations,Attitudes, and Policy Preferences     

Eric Knackmuhs  James Farmer  Doug Knapp 《社会与自然资源》2019,32(3):303-321

Overabundance of white-tailed deer is a pervasive problem across the United States. Deer are blamed for increased risk of auto accidents, tick-borne diseases, and overbrowsing of native species. Lethal management techniques, cited as cost-effective and humane, are commonly employed for herd management. However, the approach frequently sparks outrage among various stakeholders who feel killing of animals is unjustified and prefer nonlethal measures. Wildlife managers then face the challenge of communicating with the public to build policy support for lethal management. The Narrative Policy Framework was used to test the effects of differing narratives on public opinion for lethal deer management. Results indicated narratives were influential in shifting attitudes toward and support for a proposed sharpshooting policy even in some cases where respondents were already familiar with the issue and held a previous opinion. This study also supported the utility of the Narrative Policy Framework for examining human dimensions of wildlife issues.  相似文献   

Extreme floods and their relationship with tropical cyclones in Puerto Rico     

José J. Hernández Ayala  David Keellings  Peter R. Waylen  Corene J. Matyas 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(13):2103-2119

An extreme value analysis (EVA) point process approach has been implemented to examine the flood characteristics of Puerto Rico when tropical cyclones (TCs) are present in the discharge series and when they are removed from it. Mean daily discharge values that exceeded the 99th percentile thresholds were used in both the TC and non-TC data series. In nine of the 12 stations the maximum discharge was associated with a TC, with hurricanes Hortense (1996), Georges (1998) and Eloise (1975) responsible for most of the maximum peaks at each site. Percentage changes in the generalized extreme value parameters, which include location (central tendency), scale (variance) and shape (skewness), between the TC and non-TC data exhibited a decrease in the majority of stations. Stations in the eastern interior and central region of the island showed the largest decrease in all parameters, in flood occurrences and in return periods when TCs were removed from the series.  相似文献   

基于GIS的白龙江流域舟曲—武都段的滑坡危险性评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘杰  武震 《地震工程学报》2020,42(6):1723-1734

本研究以围绕着白龙江流域的甘肃省南部的宕昌县、舟曲县和武都区部分地区为研究区，根据全国滑坡编目中得到的272个历史滑坡数据以及选取的高程、坡度、坡向、平面曲率、剖面曲率、归一化植被指数（NDVI）、降雨、岩性、距道路距离和距河流距离10种影响因子，利用三种具有代表性的定量方法：信息量模型、以及基于频率比模型的逻辑回归模型和人工神经网络模型对研究区内滑坡灾害危险性进行评价。三种评价结果均显示研究区内滑坡灾害的极高和高危险区主要沿白龙江河谷地区呈带状分布。从危险性分区图可看出，人工神经网络模型得到的分区图较为合理，既表现出沿河谷地区集中分布的趋势，也呈现出对滑坡历史数据较为独立的特征，这一研究结果与前人研究结果一致。根据受试者工作特征曲线（ROC曲线）对三种模型的精度进行检验，检验得到的AUC值分别为0.818、0.829和0.837，说明三种评价结果均具有较高的可靠性，基于频率比模型的人工神经网络模型相比其他两个模型具有更好的评价精度，能更好地进行滑坡危险性的预测和评价，其中高程、降雨、岩性以及距道路距离对评价结果影响更大，这四种影响因子重要性值占比为52.1%。为该地区的城市扩建与灾害预防预测提供了参考。  相似文献